San Francisco

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	139.0
Current RPI:	139
Expected SOS:	106
Current SOS:	106
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	132
Expected OOC SOS:	63

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	139.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Francisco.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	71-83	L	0%
11-13	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	75-63	W	100%
11-17	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	69-56	W	100%
11-28	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	72-79	L	0%
12-2	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	75-57	L	0%
12-4	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	78-76	W	100%
12-7	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	81-71	W	100%
12-15	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	74-61	W	100%
12-17	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	71-59	L	0%
12-19	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	52-41	W	100%
12-22	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	N	67-65	L	0%
12-23	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	N	64-66	W	100%
12-28	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	73-63	L	0%
12-30	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	61-84	W	100%
1-4	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	59-69	L	0%
1-6	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	67-80	W	100%
1-11	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	67-65	L	0%
1-13	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	65-75	L	0%
1-18	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	62-65	L	0%
1-20	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	80-73	W	100%
1-25	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	69-67	W	100%
1-27	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	82-73	L	0%
2-1	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	79-43	L	0%
2-3	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	59-70	W	100%
2-8	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	65-63	W	100%
2-10	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	75-73	L	0%
2-15	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	70-63	W	100%
2-17	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	72-63	W	100%
2-22	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	74-84	W	100%
2-24	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	61-64	L	0%
3-3	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	N	71-70	W	100%
3-5	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	N	88-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Francisco's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Francisco's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Francisco.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Francisco	WCC	26.45	26.45	49.31	49.31	-0.37	-0.37
Pacific	WCC	5.66	5.66	46.43	46.43	-0.40	-0.40
Gonzaga	WCC	5.65	5.65	87.10	87.10	4.19	4.19
BYU	WCC	4.20	4.20	68.75	68.75	1.58	1.58
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.18	4.18	87.10	87.10	3.10	3.10
Pepperdine	WCC	4.18	4.18	17.24	17.24	-2.74	-2.74
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.14	4.14	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Portland	WCC	4.10	4.10	25.93	25.93	-1.97	-1.97
San Diego	WCC	4.09	4.09	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Santa Clara	WCC	4.09	4.09	33.33	33.33	-1.36	-1.36
UC Davis	BW	1.89	1.89	68.97	68.97	0.72	0.72
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.79	1.79	68.97	68.97	0.68	0.68
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.76	1.76	17.24	17.24	-1.16	-1.16
Nevada	MWC	1.74	1.74	81.82	81.82	1.11	1.11
Long Beach St.	BW	1.74	1.74	40.00	40.00	-0.35	-0.35
Stanford	P12	1.74	1.74	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Arizona St.	P12	1.69	1.69	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.64	1.64	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Radford	BSth	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.61	1.61	59.26	59.26	0.30	0.30
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.39	0.39	62.07	62.07	0.09	0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.36	0.36	24.14	24.14	-0.19	-0.19
Portland St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.28	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.26	0.26	14.29	14.29	-0.18	-0.18
San Jose St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	10.34	10.34	-0.20	-0.20
Washington	P12	0.24	0.24	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
California	P12	0.19	0.19	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Idaho	BSky	0.18	0.18	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Hawaii	BW	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.15	0.15	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01